Does the NHL’s Regular season mean anything?

In looking at the top 8 teams in the NHL going into the playoffs you have:

Detroit Red Wings – ELIMINATED
Ottawa Senators – ELIMINATED
Dallas Stars – ELIMINATED
Carolina Hurricanes – ALIVE
Calgary Flames – ELIMINATED
New Jersey Devils – ELIMINATED
Nashville Predators – ELIMINATED
Buffalo Sabres – ALIVE

That is a measly 2 out of 8 or 25% and if San Jose gets eliminated tonight and you add in the other 5 seed the Philadelphia Flyers you drop to 2 out of 10 or 20%....when you consider that 4 out of 16 seeds make it through to the semfinals 25% doesn’t seem to bad. In theory though would you expect the number to be higher because of home ice advantage, consistent play all year, etc, etc. As a contrast lets consider the NBA playoffs where Miami has moved on and the others that should move include a 4-Dallas, 1-Detroit, and 2-Phoenix.

Consider this stat I thought was so important come playoff time….The Detroit Red Wings had not been shut out all season long….how could Edmonton with its shaky goaltending stop such a juggernaut. Well they did and quite successfully might I add.

Or Ottawa who had some of the most statistically impressive defensemen in Andrej Meszaros, Wade Redden, Chris Phillips and Zdeno Chara…who looked like trying to skate in sneakers…Buffalo simply flew around them and broke them down with their speed.

How about Dallas who looked so horrible in round 1 losing to Colorado…their offense couldn’t beat a shaky Theodore…their vaunted defense couldn’t slow Sakic and co…and their goaltending with Marty Turco was shaky at best.

Consider New Jersey the hottest team in the NHL getting wiped out by Carolina..A Carolina team that could easily have lost its series with the Canadiens winning a number of one goal games even after Montreal lost their fearless leader.

How about Calgary…who looked so poor in Game 7 seemingly resigned to the fate they were going to lose from start to finish. Maybe now that we saw Anaheim shut down Colorado so effectively losing in 7 isn’t so bad.

What’s come true in the NHL playoffs is the fact that small goalies simply haven’t gotten the job done. Manny Legace all 5’9 off him couldn’t keep Detroit alive past round 1, Jose Theodore rode a hot offense into Round 2 but didn’t even manage to win a game in Round 2. The best goalies in the playoffs so far are some of the tallest in the league: Cam Ward (6’1), Ryan Miller (6’2), Ilya Bryzgalov – who has been the hottest (6’3). So based on this who is going to get through to meet Anaheim…well Dwayne Roloson (6’1) is 3 inches taller than Vesa Toskala (5’10). All series long I’ve noticed Toskala relies heavily on quick reflexes and isn’t the most fundamentally sound goalie. No doubt Edmonton’s coaches have seen this and are now exploiting it. Edmonton is going to win this series. Why can’t small goalies have success in the NHL…they can but nearly all goalies play the butterfly now. The butterfly is fantastic at taking away the lower part of the net…but the downside of it is you are more susceptible to high shots. Shooters have learned to refine their aim so that they are more able to pick corners…even a goalie that only gives an inch or two that inch or two is that much more room for players to shoot. Unless a small goalie plays a more stand-up style (like Mike Richter) or a hybrid style (like Marty Brodeur) they won’t have success.

All in all these playoffs have been completely unreflective of their end of season seedings. If anything this seems to be the prevailing theme in sports in the last few years. The NCAA tourney was full of upsets, the NFL nearly always is, the Olympic hockey tourney, the World Baseball Classic and the list goes on and on. Yes this is why they play the games and this is one sports is such a tantalizing and profitable entertainment business. However you would think that after NHL and NBA teams play 80+ games against all the teams in their division you think it would mean something. Well in the NBA things seem to be going back to form. Where it is likely that all of the seeds advancing will be among the top 4 (and in reality the Clips were pretty much a top 4) while in the NHL only 2 of the 4 advancing were seeded among the top 4.

Now the nature of hockey is such that upsets will always happen more so than in a 7 game NBA series. Why because a hot goalie can and will inevitably negate an opposing team’s talent advantage. In basketball there isn’t a goalie that can get hot and shut down a team’s talent. Sure teams offenses can get hot and it will lead to an upset or two but it generally won’t be sustainable over a best of 7 series. However in the NHL a hot goalie gains confidence, which filters down throughout the lineup and leads to upsets.

Nonetheless this year in the NHL has been especially upset ridden and I can’t help but wonder if it is related to the unbalanced schedule team’s played this year. Where they had the opportunity to play 8 teams against teams within their division. People said all season long that the opportunity to beat up on teams like Chicago, Columbus, and St.Louis made Detroit and Nashville look better on paper than they were in reality. Edmonton came into the first round battle hardened from an exceptionally tough division and were ready for the battle of a playoff series where Detroit might not have been. However, the argument could be made that Ottawa and Calgary fell flat because their team had a hard division they dominated but ended up hurting them in injuries. In reality the lopsided schedule likely didn’t contribute to it.

Now an additional theory would be the demands the Olympic schedule placed on the players….For example lets take Sweden…Alfredson’s team is out, Forsberg’s as well, Detroit with Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Samuelson, Holmstrom, etc. are out, Lundqvist is out. How about the fellow finalists the Finns: Nittymaki is out, Koivu is gone, Dallas’ Finnish contingent, Lehtinen, Miettinen, Jokinen are out. But at the same time Teemu Selanne is still around and playing really well. So is Toni Lydman for Buffalo. Samuel Pahlsson has been a force for Anaheim. Only Carolina is Olympian free it would seem.

But really to blame either of those two reasons would be ridiculous. I think Gary Bettman who for as much as most true hockey fans may dislike him he clearly knew what he was doing when he instituted a salary cap. Teams that had ridiculous depth built through acquisition were suddenly less deep and forced to rely on their understocked farm team to get deep into the Stanley Cup run. Teams like Detroit, Dallas, Colorado, Philadelphia all learned that their odds of buying a Stanley Cup are extremely unlikely. Also teams that invest badly in players will not be able to make a move into the contender category, like the investments made in players like Khabibulin in Chicago, Allison, Lindros and co. in Toronto, and a number of other teams made similar mistakes. The reality is that teams need to be built like the 5 remaining would be successful in the new NHL.

Let’s review:

Anaheim:
- signed Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne in the offseason.
- subtracted veterans Keith Carney, Sergei Federov, Sandis Ozolinsh, Petr Sykora
- added talented rookies in Corey Perry, Francois Beauchemin, Ryan Getzlaf, Joffrey Lupul, and Dustin Penner.
- be sure to have two good goalies J.S. Giguere, Ilya Bryzgalov.

Buffalo:
- design a team around speed with Daniel Briere, Tim Connolly, Maxim Afinogenov, J.P. Dumont, Jason Pominville
- Add seasoned veterans Teppo Numminen and Toni Lydman
- added talented rookies Thomas Vanek and Ryan Miller
- have two solid goalies Martin Biron and Ryan Miller

Carolina:
-Sign key free agents: Cory Stillman, Ray Whitney, Matt Cullen
- Subtract veterans like Jeff O’Neill, keep character veterans like Rod Brind’Amour
- Shore up your blueline with acquisitions like Mike Commodore and Oleg Tverdovsky
- Make sure you have two capable goalies has rookie backup Cam Ward been more important than any other player so far.

Edmonton:
- Acquire key defensemen Chris Pronger, Jaroslav Spacek.
- Add more depth to the forwards with Mike Peca and Sergei Samsonov.
- Give the youth a greater role in Jarrett Stoll, Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Marc-Andre Bergeron, and Raffi Torres.
- Shore up your shaky goaltending with a vet – Dwayne Roloson.

San Jose:
- stayed pretty much status quo in free agency period
- New rookies stepped up Milan Michalek, Vesa Toskala, Patrik Risjmiller, Matt Carle.
- Acquire a game changer, with midseason trade for Jumbo Joe Thornton.
- Ensure you have solid goaltending in Vesa Toskala and Evgeni Nabokov.