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Letting it all hang out.

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Second Round Predictions

So I had some mild success in round 1....calling Ottawa correctly in 5, Buffalo, New Jersey, San Jose all to win...but was really wrong with Colorado, Carolina, Anaheim, and in my defense I did have Edmonton pushing Detroit to 7 which is better than most.

The 2nd round is full of intriguing matchup and crazy amounts of speed and scoring most of these series should be barnburners and I only see one lopsided matchup. On to the predictions:

Anaheim Mighty Ducks vs. Colorado Avalanche

In this series I think the difference will be the goaltending...do I think Theodore is responsible for the Avalanche upsetting the Stars...no way no how...he simply wasn't the difference in any of the games. On the other hand the Ducks have question marks in net as well...Is Bryzgalov the story or will Giguere reappear? Either way with two very good NHL goalies I think Anaheim has the edge. I have said repeatedly I am not a fan of small goalies in the NHL....unless they do not play the butterfly as all goalies seem to (save for Brodeur and Hasek). I think thats why Manny Legace despite all his talent simply lacks the physical size to be a butterfly goalie in this league and he is a big reason why his team is out.

You don't shut down a team as well as they did for most of game 6 and 7 in their first round series as the Flames (as offensively woeful as the are) without a great defensive performance. Colorado does counter with Blake and company who played well in round 1 but who I think won't have an answer for Anaheim's speed.

As for forwards the Ducks lack experience save for Friesen, Niedermayer, and Selanne....but Selanne can and still break games open with his speed...They are no match for the proliferation of goal scorers on the Avalanche..Sakic, Tanguay, Hejduk, and even the unheralded Brunette can light the lamp...They carried their team through round 1...shattering Marty Turco's confidence in the process...and I don't see why that won't continue.

On D the ducks have Scott Niedermayer, who is arguably the best defenceman in the game, to go along with solid vets like Ruslan Salei and Sean O'Donnell and the emerging Francois Beauchemin.

Expect this to be a close series, but I think the fact Anaheim has two solid goaltenders that will make the difference, ANAHEIM TO WIN IN 6.

San Jose Sharks vs. Edmonton Oilers

As hard a matchup as any to predict because as hot as San Jose has been Edmonton has knocked off the number 1 team in the NHL in the playoffs...its sure to not be a defensive battle but the Oil might play the way they did to beat Detroit to neutralize the Shark attack.

In goal both teams got very good performances from mostly unproven playoff goalies in Dwayne Roloson and Vesa Toskala...Roloson looked extremely sharp in neutralizing Detroit's vaunted attack. I think both goaltenders played well and this series will be decided by the goaltending.

In terms of defense a lot of people say that the Edmonton D is one of the best ones left in the playoffs and I won't argue with you there. But are they a difference maker...I don't think so...Pronger can be very good but he can also be had by speed....Spacek played well against Detroit but at times seemed to be fighting the puck. The Sharks are no different their D at times was terrorized by Steve Sullivan and Paul Kariya...but their attack kept them out of trouble.

Both teams have strong groups of forwards, I would say the Sharks have better topline talent with players like Cheechoo, Thornton, Marleau and Ekman but that the Oil have more depth and are able to roll 4 lines with ease. Edmonton's forwards are fast and aggressive and have success when they are driving the net...Meanwhile with the Sharks if you focus on shutting down Thornton and Cheechoo....Marleau's line will burn you.

All in all Edmonton's beat a very good Detroit team in 6 and the Sharks took out the 4th place team with lots of injuries...Here I am going to have to go with the upset train and take EDMONTON TO WIN IN 6.

Ottawa Senators vs. Buffalo Sabres

This series will certainly be the 1 to watch...there is no question the best series of the 4 that remain. Both teams have fast skilled forwards, smart defensemen and good albeit rookie goaltending.

In nets you can't give the edge to Ottawa here because Ray Emery has not been as consistent as Ryan Miller but he has shown that he can play as well in front of Ottawa as anyone else piling up a ton of wins in March. Miller will be the better goalie long run, and at times he can be absolutely dominant.

On D with Calgary out of the playoffs there is no team that has as much depth on the blueline Phillips, Chara, Meszaros, and Redden are top tier NHL d-men. The one issue that might be of concern is the 5th and 6th Volchenkov and Pothier/Schubert are prone to the big giveaway...nonetheless any team would gladly take them as 5 or 6th options without a doubt. Buffalow counters with the underrated group of Tallinder, Kalinin, McKee, Numminen, Campbell, and Lydman. But there are no match for Ottawa's power.

On offense is there a team that scores more pretty "new" NHL goals than the speedy, talented Buffalo forwards? No there isn't Afinogenov, Briere, and Connolly can make people look silly with their dangles and Roy, Dumont, Kotalik and company know how to finish. They rarely score ugly goals and are truly a joy to watch. On the other side Ottawa has all-stars in Havlat, Alfie, Heatley, Spezza and boast depth is truly impressive. Ottawa is a little more able to play the rough and touble style you need to play to be succesful in playoff hockey...so I'll give them a slight edge.

Unlike previous years where Ottawa has folded due to bad goaltending, roughhouse play, or just because the other team was better or more opportunistic. Don't expect that this year....OTTAWA WITH THEIR NEWFOUND GRIT WINS IN 7.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils

Sorry Canes fans but this is unlikely to be close at all...Carolina will only advance past this round should one of two things happen....Ward outplays Brodeur or Jersey has an injury of the magnitude of Montreal's in round 1.

In nets there might be some debate but Brodeur had the same questions prior to round 1 will the upstart rookie goalie outshine him...Lundqvist couldn't stand up to the pressure and Brodeur's team swept the series...When you go up against Brodeur and the Devils you know that he won't let in any softies and any mistake you make is magnified because goalie on other end is that good. Sorry Ward for as good a story as you were in round 1 your run ends here.

On D neither team are particularly prolific but Carolina certainly has the edge in playoff experience...collectively as a 6 man unit there aren't any superstars but they are certainly a good group. Devils have the sublimely talented Rafalski and a bunch of gritty no mistake type veterans...nonetheless Carolin is the better team on the back end.

Offense...well this is an interesting battle as Stall, Brind'Amour, Williams and company played very well in the first round. All their forwards are talented and can burn you and they have some grit in the unrelated Adams duo. However, New Jersey counters with the best line in the playoffs to date Elias, Gomez, and Gionta....who are unstoppable..they are so good it elevates the play of the remainder of the devils like Madden, Langenbrunner, etc.

Overall Carolina is a good team but not good enough to slow down the hottest team with the hottest line and hottest goaltender....this wont be 19 straight for the Devils but NEW JERSEY TAKES IT IN 6.