Who's gonna be in the fight for Lord Stanley?

Whoever coined the phrase that absence makes the heart grow fonder was dead on. Surely they must have been talking about the NHL playoffs...after a year of replacing them with world championships, memorial cup, the NBA we have a return to the REAL DEAL. There is no doubt in my mind that the Stanley Cup is the most arduos of all major championships to win imagine the better part of 3 months spent battling every second night in one of the most physically exhausting sports out there? Football is tough but after getting pounded you get a week off. Basketball is equally long but they don't have to deal with getting squeezed into unforgiving boards on a regular basis.

Now this playoffs has had everything you could hope for...Cinderella stories...an 8 seed to the semis. Emerging stars...hello Ryan Miller, Cam Ward, Ilya Bryzgalov, and Shawn Horcoff. Rejuvenated vets...did anyone say Rod Brind'Amour, Dwayne Roloson, Jay Mckee, Teemu Selanne? Or highlight reel saves and goals....which have occurred on a nightly basis.

And best of all these playoffs have been battered with unpredictability and parity...which every fan has gotta love. How about Jim Rutherford, Carolina's general manager, with the agreement of star player Eric Staal calling 7 seed Montreal as the best team in the East outside of themselves and Buffalo...Think about it a 7 seed better than 1-Ottawa, 3- New Jersey, 5- Philadelphia and 6-NY Rangers. Not to say I disagree...talent wise they may not have been the best...but line for line they definitely played more cohesively than the other units in the East.

Or perhaps even better shown in the West where a 6 and 8 seed are meeting for the right to go to the Cup finals...all in all Anaheim really shouldn't be that much of a surprise given the fact that from December on they had one of the best records in the NHL...compiling a record of 37-25 after a 7 -13 start (I counted shootout and OT losses as straight losses). And really should anyone in Edmonton or around the league be surprised that Edmonton is this good as they stayed in playoff contention all year despite the most abysmal goaltending of almost all the NHL teams. You had to know once the Oil got someone between the pipes they were going to be dangerous.

Now all in all what does this mean for the semis? Well lets take a closer look...

Buffalo Sabres vs. Carolina Hurricanes

Now a lot of hockey folk are still trying to figure out how the Canadiens didn't manage to win any of those 4 straight one goal games (3 at home) that put Carolina into round 2. Well the reason is simply that in close games there is perhaps no team better that the Hurricanes who are blessed with solid goaltending and a group of vets that thrive on tight games. Some people wonder if any team can match Buffalo's speed...and their playmaking ability. Buffalo has yet to truly be tested in the first 2 rounds...controlling for the most part their 11 games.


Up front ... on paper it looks like Carolina has the better talent with names like Brind'Amour, Recchi, Weight, Stillman, Staal and company....But I think that unless Erik Cole makes a miracle comeback...the 'Canes won't have enough to win this battle against Buffalo. Why well lets see of these players which as a defenseman would you like to face...hmm Afinogenov - too fast to shifty, Briere - its easier to hit a greased up pig, Roy - umm see the first two, Drury - probably not because you don't want to be on wrong end of one of his big goals...do you? I could give you reasons why defensemen don't want to face nearly all of the Bufalo forwards. Basically Buffalo has depth at forward that NO team can match.

On defense its the battle of the underrated defense corps...Buffalo has a solid but not spectacular group back there that will battle with you all night long and kill you with their smart breakout passes. But Carolina counters with some of the most experienced defensemen on the back-end...all of who have seen Stanley Cup final action...none of them will break you down one on one, but they all know what it takes to avoid being broken down. Edge Carolina.

In net which inexperienced but white hot rookie goaltender do you want to take...If you changed uniforms you might mistake these two for each other. Simply put I like Ryan Miller simply because he has been the go to guy all season long and I think he is the slightly better of the two. But you can't discount Cam Ward's Memorial cup...so overall this is a wash.

What this series is going to come down to is which team gets the right bounces and plays the better team guy. I am going to say right now that Buffalo wins this one...why you ask?? Well here are a few reasons:
1) Right now no team plays a better team game, this team seems to be born to play with each other.
2) The goals they score are almost always unstoppable...they haven't faced bad goaltending yet but still have been capable to light up the lamp.
3) They always seem to score first. Which in playoff hockey is huge.
4) Also because I think Montreal with Koivu in the lineup gave Carolina fits and if anything Buffalo is a better version of Montreal with Koivu.

So bottom line Buffalo advances to finals in 6.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Anaheim Mighty Ducks

Both teams took very different paths to get to the semis...Anaheim battled as long as possible to beat the Flames then easily dispatched the Avalanche in sweep fashion. Meanwhile Edmonton had epic battles in identical 6 games against both the Sharks and the Red Wings. Nonetheless both teams come in following four straight wins and both are riding hot goaltending. It would appear this series is going to come down to who wants it more because on paper there isn't much to distinguish between the two.


If we look up front both teams are led by savvy veterans but rely heavily on mostly untested young players while Anaheim relies on Rob Niedermayer, Teemu Selanne and Todd Marchant for veteran leadership the Oil counters with Ryan Smyth, Mike Peca and Sergei Samsonov. But the reality is the battle is primarily between which group of vets gets it kids to play best...whether Anaheim rookie platoon of Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Joffrey Lupul, and Dustin Penner can beat out the relative "veterans" of Fernando Pisani, Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, and Raffi Torres. The reality given their greater depth and penchant for short handed markers...5 to Anaheim's 0 this battle is taken by Edmonton.

On D the teams are again remarkably similar...Both have all-star D-men playing series minutes...you have the fleet two way threat in Scott Niedermayer vs. the human wall in Chris Pronger...expect both to pull down serious minutes. While Anaheim also has unheralded veterans like Vitaly Vishnevski, Scott O'Donnell and Ruslan Salei to counter the Oils vets of Steve Staios, Jaroslav Spacek, and Jason Smith. One shouldn't overlook the two young dmen with the cannon shots either...who will strike fear in the shot blockers and goalies more than Marc-Andre Bergeron or Francois Beauchemin? The reality this battle is a very close one...I think based on the post-seasons leading bodychecker and shot blocker, Jason Smith, I will give this one to Edmonton.

Finally lets look in nets...both teams are riding hot goaltending as Dwayne Roloson shut down a hot Sharks attack and Bryzgalov stopped the plethora of snipers on the Avalanche with ease. Bryzgalovs's number are absolutely astronomical and he is deadly hot. Meanwhile Roloson ended the last series with a masterful performance shutting out the powerful Sharks. Looking at it Roloson has compiled a .933 save percentage and 2.08 goals against average against the regular season's number 2 and 7 ranked offenses - Detroit and San Jose. Comparably, Bryzgalov ,has compiled a .962 save percentage and 0.87 goals against average in 5 games, 4 of which were against the league's number 4 offense Colorado. Really both goalies are spectacular but I think Bryzgalov with his slight size advantage and hot streak will be the better of the two in the series. Mind you a layoff like the one Ducks had can kill a hot goalies momentum.

Overall the teams are extremely evenly matched but I think that the Edmonton Oilers are going to win this series for the following reasons:

1) Edmonton has the slightly more experienced team and the slightly deeper defense.
2) Anaheim will be rusty after not seeing game action in a while.
3) Edmonton is looking unbeatable at RAUCOUS Rexall Place.
4) The Calgary Flames pushed Anaheim to 7 games playing a physical style with quality goaltending. Edmonton is equally as physical, speedier and has an offense that is so much better than Calgary's (ranked 15th vs 27th)

It will be a tight series but expect the Oil to take it in their standard 6.

So the Cup finals will see this years best post-season locales have a party that will last a little longer...Can't wait to see how electric both those buildings will be in the finals.

Does the NHL’s Regular season mean anything?

In looking at the top 8 teams in the NHL going into the playoffs you have:

Detroit Red Wings – ELIMINATED
Ottawa Senators – ELIMINATED
Dallas Stars – ELIMINATED
Carolina Hurricanes – ALIVE
Calgary Flames – ELIMINATED
New Jersey Devils – ELIMINATED
Nashville Predators – ELIMINATED
Buffalo Sabres – ALIVE

That is a measly 2 out of 8 or 25% and if San Jose gets eliminated tonight and you add in the other 5 seed the Philadelphia Flyers you drop to 2 out of 10 or 20%....when you consider that 4 out of 16 seeds make it through to the semfinals 25% doesn’t seem to bad. In theory though would you expect the number to be higher because of home ice advantage, consistent play all year, etc, etc. As a contrast lets consider the NBA playoffs where Miami has moved on and the others that should move include a 4-Dallas, 1-Detroit, and 2-Phoenix.

Consider this stat I thought was so important come playoff time….The Detroit Red Wings had not been shut out all season long….how could Edmonton with its shaky goaltending stop such a juggernaut. Well they did and quite successfully might I add.

Or Ottawa who had some of the most statistically impressive defensemen in Andrej Meszaros, Wade Redden, Chris Phillips and Zdeno Chara…who looked like trying to skate in sneakers…Buffalo simply flew around them and broke them down with their speed.

How about Dallas who looked so horrible in round 1 losing to Colorado…their offense couldn’t beat a shaky Theodore…their vaunted defense couldn’t slow Sakic and co…and their goaltending with Marty Turco was shaky at best.

Consider New Jersey the hottest team in the NHL getting wiped out by Carolina..A Carolina team that could easily have lost its series with the Canadiens winning a number of one goal games even after Montreal lost their fearless leader.

How about Calgary…who looked so poor in Game 7 seemingly resigned to the fate they were going to lose from start to finish. Maybe now that we saw Anaheim shut down Colorado so effectively losing in 7 isn’t so bad.

What’s come true in the NHL playoffs is the fact that small goalies simply haven’t gotten the job done. Manny Legace all 5’9 off him couldn’t keep Detroit alive past round 1, Jose Theodore rode a hot offense into Round 2 but didn’t even manage to win a game in Round 2. The best goalies in the playoffs so far are some of the tallest in the league: Cam Ward (6’1), Ryan Miller (6’2), Ilya Bryzgalov – who has been the hottest (6’3). So based on this who is going to get through to meet Anaheim…well Dwayne Roloson (6’1) is 3 inches taller than Vesa Toskala (5’10). All series long I’ve noticed Toskala relies heavily on quick reflexes and isn’t the most fundamentally sound goalie. No doubt Edmonton’s coaches have seen this and are now exploiting it. Edmonton is going to win this series. Why can’t small goalies have success in the NHL…they can but nearly all goalies play the butterfly now. The butterfly is fantastic at taking away the lower part of the net…but the downside of it is you are more susceptible to high shots. Shooters have learned to refine their aim so that they are more able to pick corners…even a goalie that only gives an inch or two that inch or two is that much more room for players to shoot. Unless a small goalie plays a more stand-up style (like Mike Richter) or a hybrid style (like Marty Brodeur) they won’t have success.

All in all these playoffs have been completely unreflective of their end of season seedings. If anything this seems to be the prevailing theme in sports in the last few years. The NCAA tourney was full of upsets, the NFL nearly always is, the Olympic hockey tourney, the World Baseball Classic and the list goes on and on. Yes this is why they play the games and this is one sports is such a tantalizing and profitable entertainment business. However you would think that after NHL and NBA teams play 80+ games against all the teams in their division you think it would mean something. Well in the NBA things seem to be going back to form. Where it is likely that all of the seeds advancing will be among the top 4 (and in reality the Clips were pretty much a top 4) while in the NHL only 2 of the 4 advancing were seeded among the top 4.

Now the nature of hockey is such that upsets will always happen more so than in a 7 game NBA series. Why because a hot goalie can and will inevitably negate an opposing team’s talent advantage. In basketball there isn’t a goalie that can get hot and shut down a team’s talent. Sure teams offenses can get hot and it will lead to an upset or two but it generally won’t be sustainable over a best of 7 series. However in the NHL a hot goalie gains confidence, which filters down throughout the lineup and leads to upsets.

Nonetheless this year in the NHL has been especially upset ridden and I can’t help but wonder if it is related to the unbalanced schedule team’s played this year. Where they had the opportunity to play 8 teams against teams within their division. People said all season long that the opportunity to beat up on teams like Chicago, Columbus, and St.Louis made Detroit and Nashville look better on paper than they were in reality. Edmonton came into the first round battle hardened from an exceptionally tough division and were ready for the battle of a playoff series where Detroit might not have been. However, the argument could be made that Ottawa and Calgary fell flat because their team had a hard division they dominated but ended up hurting them in injuries. In reality the lopsided schedule likely didn’t contribute to it.

Now an additional theory would be the demands the Olympic schedule placed on the players….For example lets take Sweden…Alfredson’s team is out, Forsberg’s as well, Detroit with Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Samuelson, Holmstrom, etc. are out, Lundqvist is out. How about the fellow finalists the Finns: Nittymaki is out, Koivu is gone, Dallas’ Finnish contingent, Lehtinen, Miettinen, Jokinen are out. But at the same time Teemu Selanne is still around and playing really well. So is Toni Lydman for Buffalo. Samuel Pahlsson has been a force for Anaheim. Only Carolina is Olympian free it would seem.

But really to blame either of those two reasons would be ridiculous. I think Gary Bettman who for as much as most true hockey fans may dislike him he clearly knew what he was doing when he instituted a salary cap. Teams that had ridiculous depth built through acquisition were suddenly less deep and forced to rely on their understocked farm team to get deep into the Stanley Cup run. Teams like Detroit, Dallas, Colorado, Philadelphia all learned that their odds of buying a Stanley Cup are extremely unlikely. Also teams that invest badly in players will not be able to make a move into the contender category, like the investments made in players like Khabibulin in Chicago, Allison, Lindros and co. in Toronto, and a number of other teams made similar mistakes. The reality is that teams need to be built like the 5 remaining would be successful in the new NHL.

Let’s review:

Anaheim:
- signed Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne in the offseason.
- subtracted veterans Keith Carney, Sergei Federov, Sandis Ozolinsh, Petr Sykora
- added talented rookies in Corey Perry, Francois Beauchemin, Ryan Getzlaf, Joffrey Lupul, and Dustin Penner.
- be sure to have two good goalies J.S. Giguere, Ilya Bryzgalov.

Buffalo:
- design a team around speed with Daniel Briere, Tim Connolly, Maxim Afinogenov, J.P. Dumont, Jason Pominville
- Add seasoned veterans Teppo Numminen and Toni Lydman
- added talented rookies Thomas Vanek and Ryan Miller
- have two solid goalies Martin Biron and Ryan Miller

Carolina:
-Sign key free agents: Cory Stillman, Ray Whitney, Matt Cullen
- Subtract veterans like Jeff O’Neill, keep character veterans like Rod Brind’Amour
- Shore up your blueline with acquisitions like Mike Commodore and Oleg Tverdovsky
- Make sure you have two capable goalies has rookie backup Cam Ward been more important than any other player so far.

Edmonton:
- Acquire key defensemen Chris Pronger, Jaroslav Spacek.
- Add more depth to the forwards with Mike Peca and Sergei Samsonov.
- Give the youth a greater role in Jarrett Stoll, Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Marc-Andre Bergeron, and Raffi Torres.
- Shore up your shaky goaltending with a vet – Dwayne Roloson.

San Jose:
- stayed pretty much status quo in free agency period
- New rookies stepped up Milan Michalek, Vesa Toskala, Patrik Risjmiller, Matt Carle.
- Acquire a game changer, with midseason trade for Jumbo Joe Thornton.
- Ensure you have solid goaltending in Vesa Toskala and Evgeni Nabokov.

Thankful for a short 2nd NHL round

So in reviewing the action over this past week I can honestly say that I was a little surprise at how short 3 out of 4 of the NHL series have been….I mean for three of the four series to almost be sweeps is pretty insane. Certainly the only team that managed the feat is Anaheim but Buffalo lost a close game to Ottawa which could easily have gone the other way.

I’ll have more thoughts on those series a little bit later…but consider this…I was so happy last night that the NHL was done because I was able to watch two fantastic NBA games…Pistons-Cavaliers and Mavericks-Spurs both came right down to the wire and both were thrilling to watch. Unfortunately because of the absolutely elevated entertainment factor of this year’s NHL playoffs I’ve missed out on most of what is widely describe as the most entertaining NBA playoffs in years. Last night while most people I know were soaking up the season ending episode of Grey’s Anatomy I was soaking up floaters, dunks, fadeaways and more.

I just have a couple of observations relative to this…I defy you to find one player on any team on the league that elevates his teammates more that Lebron James…he has turned a player known for his floppy hair more than his play into a difference maker. He finds Donyell Marshall for wide open 3s and when his team needs a bucket no matter how bad he is struggling he finds a way to fly to the hoop. If the NBA is smart they will pin all their hopes on him to bring them back to the Golden Era aka the Jordan era.

The King is clearly that but there is a fantastic player out west…a man I will dub the Baron de Nowitzki…just cause it sounds cool. He is playing on at least one wonky ankle if not 2 yet still runs up and down the court like if he didn’t he would die. Despite his defensive shortcomings is their anyone in the league that causes more matchup problems on offense…He can spot up and shoot from anywhere, and in any body position….falling away, leaning in, going sideways and it almost always hits nothing but net.

Also what’s more fun than the run and gun point guards in the league now…all ushered in by the emergence of Steve Nash…are there players more fun to watch that Tony Parker flying at mach speed to the hoop. Or Devin Harris turning on the jet pack and flying to the whole while the big guys flail around them. Or Jason Terry who darts in and out like a hummingbird and unleashes daggers from all over. While all of these guys are their own style of player I can’t help but think they refined their style base on players like Nash and Iverson who showed that speed can negate height.